Conflating Temporal Advancement and Epistemic Advancement: The Progression Bias in Judgment and Decision Making

doi:10.1177/0146167219838542

	Conflating Temporal Advancement and Epistemic Advancement: The Progression Bias in Judgment and Decision Making
	Zhou, Haotian1 ; Li, Xilin 2; Sim, Jessica 3
	2019-11
发表期刊	PERSONALITY AND SOCIAL PSYCHOLOGY BULLETIN (IF:3.4[JCR-2023],4.5[5-Year])
ISSN	0146-1672
卷号	45 期号:11 页码:1563-1579
发表状态	已发表
DOI	10.1177/0146167219838542
摘要	When seeking out the truth about a certain aspect of the world, people frequently conduct several inquiries successively over a time span. Later inquiries usually improve upon earlier ones; thus, it is typically rational to expect the finding of a later inquiry to be closer to the truth than that of an earlier one. However, when no meaningful differences exist between earlier and later inquiries, later findings should not be considered epistemically superior. However, in these cases, people continue to regard findings from later inquiries as closer to the truth than earlier ones. In 10 experiments, when later inquiries conflicted with-but did not epistemically improve upon-earlier ones, participants' global judgments about the truth aligned more with later findings than earlier ones, an effect referred to as progression bias. The liability to progression bias may have severe ramifications for the well-being of the society and its members.
关键词	progression bias schema overgeneralization judgment and decision making
收录类别	SSCI
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Psychology
WOS类目	Psychology, Social
WOS记录号	WOS:000487911700003
出版者	SAGE PUBLICATIONS INC
WOS关键词	MEMORY ; ERRORS ; MECHANISMS ; ATTENTION ; NOVELTY
原始文献类型	Article
引用统计	正在获取...
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	https://kms.shanghaitech.edu.cn/handle/2MSLDSTB/80216
专题	创业与管理学院_PI研究组_周昊天组
通讯作者	Zhou, Haotian
作者单位	1.ShanghaiTech Univ, 199 Huanke Rd, Shanghai 201210, Peoples R China 2.Univ Chicago, Chicago, IL 60637 USA 3.Elmhurst Coll, Elmhurst, IL USA
第一作者单位	上海科技大学
通讯作者单位	上海科技大学
第一作者的第一单位	上海科技大学
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Zhou, Haotian,Li, Xilin,Sim, Jessica. Conflating Temporal Advancement and Epistemic Advancement: The Progression Bias in Judgment and Decision Making[J]. PERSONALITY AND SOCIAL PSYCHOLOGY BULLETIN,2019,45(11):1563-1579.
APA	Zhou, Haotian,Li, Xilin,&Sim, Jessica.(2019).Conflating Temporal Advancement and Epistemic Advancement: The Progression Bias in Judgment and Decision Making.PERSONALITY AND SOCIAL PSYCHOLOGY BULLETIN,45(11),1563-1579.
MLA	Zhou, Haotian,et al."Conflating Temporal Advancement and Epistemic Advancement: The Progression Bias in Judgment and Decision Making".PERSONALITY AND SOCIAL PSYCHOLOGY BULLETIN 45.11(2019):1563-1579.