Human mobility restrictions and the spread of the Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) in China

doi:10.1016/j.jpubeco.2020.104272

	Human mobility restrictions and the spread of the Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) in China
	Fang, Hanming1,2,4 ; Wang, Long2 ; Yang, Yang 3
	2020-11
发表期刊	JOURNAL OF PUBLIC ECONOMICS (IF:4.8[JCR-2023],6.5[5-Year])
ISSN	0047-2727
卷号	191
发表状态	已发表
DOI	10.1016/j.jpubeco.2020.104272
摘要	We quantify the causal impact of human mobility restrictions, particularly the lockdown ofWuhan on January 23, 2020, on the containment and delay of the spread of the Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV). Weemploy differencein-differences (DID) estimations to disentangle the lockdown effect on human mobility reductions from other confounding effects including panic effect, virus effect, and the Spring Festival effect. The lockdown ofWuhan reduced inflows toWuhan by 76.98%, outflows fromWuhan by 56.31%, and within-Wuhan movements by 55.91%. We also estimate the dynamic effects of up to 22 lagged population inflows fromWuhan and other Hubei cities the epicenter of the 2019-nCoV outbreak - on the destination cities' new infection cases. We also provide evidence that the enhanced social distancing policies in the 98 Chinese cities outside Hubei province were effective in reducing the impact of the population inflows from the epicenter cities in Hubei province on the spread of 2019-nCoV in the destination cities. We find that in the counterfactual world in whichWuhan were not locked down on January 23, 2020, the COVID-19 cases would be 105.27% higher in the 347 Chinese cities outside Hubei province. Our findings are relevant in the global efforts in pandemic containment. (c) 2020 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
关键词	Human mobility Lockdown Social distancing 2019-nCoV COVID-19 Disease outbreak
URL	查看原文
收录类别	SSCI
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Business & Economics
WOS类目	Economics
WOS记录号	WOS:000579860600014
出版者	ELSEVIER SCIENCE SA
引用统计	正在获取...
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	https://kms.shanghaitech.edu.cn/handle/2MSLDSTB/123949
专题	创业与管理学院_PI研究组_方汉明组创业与管理学院_PI研究组_王龙组
通讯作者	Fang, Hanming
作者单位	1.Univ Penn, Dept Econ, 133 S 36th St, Philadelphia, PA 19104 USA 2.ShanghaiTech Univ, Sch Entrepreneurship & Management, 393 Middle Huaxia Rd, Shanghai 201210, Peoples R China 3.Chinese Univ Hong Kong, CUHK Business Sch, 12 Chak Cheung St, Hong Kong, Peoples R China 4.NBER, Cambridge, MA 02138 USA
第一作者单位	创业与管理学院
通讯作者单位	创业与管理学院
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Fang, Hanming,Wang, Long,Yang, Yang. Human mobility restrictions and the spread of the Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) in China[J]. JOURNAL OF PUBLIC ECONOMICS,2020,191.
APA	Fang, Hanming,Wang, Long,&Yang, Yang.(2020).Human mobility restrictions and the spread of the Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) in China.JOURNAL OF PUBLIC ECONOMICS,191.
MLA	Fang, Hanming,et al."Human mobility restrictions and the spread of the Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) in China".JOURNAL OF PUBLIC ECONOMICS 191(2020).